Ever since the idea of Scottish independence began to gain widespread popularity with the discovery of North Sea oil in the 1970s, there has been a very real possibility of an independent Scottish state seceding from the UK. With the 2014 referendum on independence looming on the horizon, it now seems more likely than ever that Alex Salmond’s fantasy state will become a reality. Many people have argued over what this change would mean for Scotland, but relatively few have thought of England – as such, I set out to learn how this bold move might affect people in my local area.
The first effect to take into account is dull but vital: the economic impacts of independence. Scotland pays less tax than the rest of the UK and many of its public services, such as universities, are subsidised by the taxpayer and thus provided for free. If Scotland leaves the union, tax rates are likely to decrease in England, since we will no longer be paying for these services. Alternatively, the tax rate might stay consistent, leaving the government with more money to use on improving public services in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
On the other hand, the UK might be hit fairly hard by the loss of Scottish money, since their oil and tourism form a key part of the UK’s economy. In addition to this, Scotland aims to keep using the British pound, meaning that it will become a multi-national currency just like it was before the breakup of the Empire – the British government will no longer be able to directly monitor it, which might affect its strength on the international market. We can’t really be sure how our jobs and taxes will be affected, but it seems likely that independence will have some effect on the economy at large.
Another aspect of the debate is political. The Labour and Liberal Democratic parties are very strong in Scotland, whereas the Conservative Party is very weak –if Scotland leaves the UK, those parties will lose a large proportion of their seats in the British Parliament. Furthermore, the powerful Scottish Nationalist Party will lose all of its seats. This might be seen as a good thing by many people in Elmbridge, which is a largely Conservative area, since it will allow the Tories to gain a majority more easily.
In addition to this, individual English Members of Parliament will gain more influence, since Parliament on the whole will have become smaller in the absence of the Scottish representatives. It will also mean that Scottish politicians will no longer have a say in English affairs, meaning that we are likely to have our interests better represented on a national scale. It therefore looks like independence might be a good thing for the politically-minded Englishmen, so long as they are someone right-leaning.
One possible issue to watch out for, however, is the possible rise of extreme parties: groups such as the BNP are most popular in England, and without Scottish voters there to support other parties, they might start to gain more of a foothold in Parliament. While some members of society would be pleased to see this happen, the majority of people consider their ethnocentric and borderline fascistic policies to be concerning and even offensive, and may therefore appreciate the moderating influence of Scotland on British politics.
The effect of independence that is most likely to affect people in their daily lives is its human side. Nobody’s going to deny that the breakup of the UK will make it harder for friends and relatives in different countries to contact each other, since travel across the border may be made more difficult and expensive. In addition to this, a lot of Scottish people live in London and the South of England, and it may be difficult for them to choose between accepting British or Scottish citizenship.
Although it might not affect us to a great extent here in the South, secession is also likely to provoke a huge wave of migration between England and Scotland. Scots might flock to the North of England, keen to keep their British passports, and English people might move to the new Scottish state, enticed by promises of a new and growing economy. People would also move in both directions for personal reasons, since people don’t generally like to be too far separated from their friends and family. Even if most people settled around the England-Scotland border far away from Surrey, it might have a knock-on effect on the rest of the country, although nobody can really say for sure.
The final effect of independence, which many consider to be very important, would be the loss of our collective British identity. While this change might be hard to quantify, a large number of people in Surrey are very patriotic and proud of our nation’s past, including the achievements and culture of Scotland and its people. Borders will be re-drawn, titles will change, and we’ll have a new flag – it might not sound like much on paper, but we’ll be living in a United Kingdom that’s missing one of its two original components. It’ll be a whole new nation, and we’ll have to redefine ourselves on an international stage.
All things considered, Scottish independence doesn’t seem like too frightening a prospect for Elmbridge-dwellers. It’s not guaranteed to happen, and it seems like it will mostly affect people living in the North of England and in Scotland – however, the political and economic changes could affect England as a whole, for good or for bad. I’m inclined not to worry too much, however – even if we are affected, it will take a long time for things to change on a large scale, and the impacts are unlikely to be drastic.
We should, however, keep an eye on any developments and be wary of the changes to come, especially if any of us have close ties to anyone over the border. Scottish independence will change the face of Britain forever, and even if it’s wrong for us to selfishly cling to a very Anglocentric idea of “Britishness” that is not shared by the majority of Scots, it does seem as if the loss of one of the UK’s two founding countries would serve as a hefty blow to our national pride.
